SEA is used to the Military taking control of their countries. All 11 countries have had it happen and most more than once. Sometimes it has been low key with little or no fuss. Sometimes it has led to bitter Civil War at the profit or expense of surrounding nations. But never has it been more volatile than right now in Burma.

The Thai Government are concerned about it, the Thai people are worried about it, China is doing nothing about it, and Myanmar is so far off to dictatorial right wing it rivals North Korea. It is ridiculous to suggest the election was rigged. The trumped up charges against Aung San Suu Kyi fool no one. Illegal PMR radios come under the remit of organisations like OSCE and EODE amongst the several vested parties watching over human rights and freedom to vote un-coerced and not one of them saw anything inappropriate in Burma last November. In fact the organisations have publicly stated there was "NO FRAUD".

It looks as though Suu Kyi went along with a lot of military demands but having won the election emphatically decided to stand up to the Generals and say 'No'. And that is what this Court hearing is really all about. It is about getting Suu Kyi banned from holding office so the Generals can have their puppet appointed.

But the Generals have made a terrible mistake that could lead to disastrous outcomes. If the Courts find her not guilty, which is a possibility seeing as the charges are ludicrous, the military will have to impose rule. And that will almost inevitably lead to Civil War. Look at the willingness to demonstrate despite the serious consequences. Just speaking out against the Army is a capital offence in Burma. If the Courts find her guilty they will look a laughing stock Internationally and will lose all credibility and again could lead to Civil War.

And the last time that happened it spilled over into Thailand. A country that is already Politically unstable with a military puppet in the hot seat. I can imagine talks going on right now between Phrayut and Myint Swe overseen by both countries army Generals. Even that has no guarantees. If Thailand, as likely will, sides with International opinion and these neighbours fall out there will be two nations at war with each other. Meanwhile China cannot do the right thing. If they step in International condemnation will be furious. If they don't.... Well let's just hope they do.

If you are retired and living in Thailand you need to sit up and pay attention because if Myanmar destabilises and refugees pour into Thailand the Thai regions will become unstable either by civil disobedience or, as many Thai are worried, Civil War will slowly bleed into Thailand. The USA is no longer a contender with military support in Thailand. There will be no stopping the inevitable and what you today consider 'living in paradise' will be a nightmare followed by you being the refugee trying to repatriate.

Let's hope I'm wrong but millions of Thai worry this is exactly what will happen.

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