Having predicted the riots would get worse; and they did. And having predicted the Yellows would not accept defeat; and they haven't. And most importantly having predicted Yingluck would find herself in a predicament and unable to form a Government; does not make me the Messiah of Thailand. None of these predictions were mine; they were inevitabilities; they were prophesied in all political columns in Thai newspapers.
What wasn't foreseen was why and that is kinda' odd considering the whys and wherefores are historical. I suspect only in Thai politics is it possible to see the future but not the past.
The PDRC, a group of Yellow shirts who want political reform, have campaigned for a long time for the dissolution of Parliament and Royal intervention to reform the Polling system, but no one would have expected what happened during the Election. Don't get me wrong, protests were inevitable but who would have thought the PDRC would have gained favour with Red shirts when the People's Democratic Reform Committee is led by MP's like Somkiat Pongpaibul, a democrat, in other words a Yellow shirt. The group is based on the politics of Sonthiyan Chuenruthainaitham who is wanted for insurrection despite his wanting Ministers to be installed by Royal decree and not 'elected by the people' and yet they have gained favour with their political adversaries while behaving as expected like Jacobite urban gangsters.
The PDRC has a lot of support by all political persuasions and it needs to be understood what has caused it. The current system is one of uncertainty. An entire Amphur could vote for their district Phue Thai Party politician but still be given a Thai Rak Thai MP under the recalculation of Proportional Representation. And bear in mind this is what Clegg and his no hopers in England wanted to introduce in the UK. First past the post isn't necessarily fair but neither is 'no matter how you vote you will get what we give you'. So the reformists have a point; it needs change because the current system is by no means democratic; but neither is electoral reform by Monarchy.
All the PDRC leaders call themselves Democrats but what in the world of common sense is democratic about ministers, and bearing in mind that would include the PM, holding a permanent position in a Sovereign Government? This would not be a people's Government; it would be the King's Government. Laws would be passed by Royal Decree. He would have the power to take his Government back to Ayutthaya (what we know as Siam). He could bring back the racist Laws on business ownership, land ownership, and repatriation. He could if he wanted declare war on Burma. He could successfully undo the three centuries since the people rose against the Sukhothai Dynasty and installed King Rama l as their new Royal. And why do the PDRC want this? Because they cannot win seats of power without subterfuge. They are made up of businessmen who want control of the Government for their own benefit and not for the benefit of the people. They believe as the educated and Hi-So society of Thailand they should have control.
But big businessmen and MP's are not the kind of people who would shoot guns into queues of voters and while Red shirts are known to be a bit over-exuberant, they are not known for murdering six soldiers and a Police officer during a demonstration. So who are these Yellow shirt PDRC demonstrators? Quite simply, they are hired thugs, and they have been hired to wreck the 2014 election.
I think it fair to say they have succeeded. They caused the closure of 18 polling stations in Bangkok alone. 10% of polling booths across Thailand had to be closed and notably all of them in the richer, industrialised, suburbs. On top of that another 10% of voters ticked the 'None of the above' box. That was enough to make the election result null. So why are they still demonstrating and now resorting to shooting soldiers trying to keep the peace? Because they want electoral reform before the election is carried out. Because they cannot be properly represented without the change so they want change first despite the fact they need a Government in power to change the law. And because of that they need the King to hold power and make the change and then have an election. A rich businessman is not going to stand in the streets shouting slogans, he doesn't need to, so not one single protester is in any way representative of the PDRC or any voter who wants change. Why else would it be costing the business community 50 million baht every day to support the revolt, why else would the community keep shelling out, why is it not obvious the business sector want to rule. And more importantly, why are they allowed to get away with it..
Why would the business sector run the risk of giving the Monarchy absolute power? Because they have nothing to lose and have everything to gain if they have absolute rule. They do not care about the poor regions. They do not care about society. They are Jao Nie, the masters, and they would return the majority to their proper place, Bao Prai, servitude.
The day they get their own way will be the death of democracy in Thailand - what there is of it anyway...